Israel has conducted a series of targeted assassinations of three Syrian government officials. Reports also suggest that Jalani has fled Damascus配资评测网, raising questions about his future fate, similar to that of Assad's. Can Turkey guarantee the territorial integrity of Syria?
On July 18th, an Israeli official disclosed that due to unstable conditions in southern Syria's Suwayda region, Israel has agreed to allow limited entry of Syrian security forces into the area over the next 48 hours. Simultaneously, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has set two red lines for the Syrian government: first, to ensure demilitarization of southern Syria, and second, to protect the Druze population within Syrian territory. Implicitly, if Israel's demands are not met, the Israeli Defense Forces will continue military operations in Syria, including airstrikes on high-value targets within Syrian borders. Netanyahu's bold threats are linked to two unconfirmed reports: first, that three senior Syrian officials, including Defense Minister Kasra, were allegedly assassinated; second, that transitional government leader Jalani has fled Damascus and may face a fate similar to former leader Assad's. Thus, Syria currently finds itself in a state of leadership vacuum, with various factions engaged in mutual conflicts, providing Israel with an opportunity.
展开剩余69%Indeed, this situation was somewhat expected. Since the outbreak of civil war in Syria in 2011, the fragile stability has been shattered. At that time, Bashar al-Assad's regime faced not only domestic opposition but also the threat of extremist organizations like ISIS, resulting in significant losses for government forces. Fortunately, timely intervention by Russia provided a lifeline for the Assad regime, gradually stabilizing the domestic situation. However, the good times were short-lived. In 2024, Syrian opposition forces launched a successful counteroffensive that breached government defenses and eventually seized control of Damascus. Bashar al-Assad fled Syria for political asylum in Russia, while Jalani seized the opportunity to establish a new interim government. Amidst the ongoing deterioration of the Middle East situation, Israel has begun making new moves. Besides deploying troops to the Golan Heights, Israel has attempted to position its military along the Syrian border, aiming to establish a buffer zone to maintain strategic advantage.
However, as of now, Syrian authorities have not confirmed Jalani's \"escape\" and Jalani has explicitly stated his intention to continue leading Syria, demonstrating efforts to stabilize the situation. Turkey's support plays a crucial role in Jalani's confidence. As a key neighboring country, Turkey has played a significant role in the Syrian civil war. Essentially, Jalani's faction's weapons and equipment are covertly supplied by Turkey, which also provides necessary intelligence support and tactical guidance when needed, helping Jalani gain the upper hand. In response to Israel's recent military actions, Turkish President Erdogan has issued strong warnings, emphasizing the need to safeguard Syria's territorial sovereignty. Implicitly, if Israel insists on dividing Syria, Turkey will not sit idly by and may intervene militarily when necessary.
To many, Turkey's direct confrontation with Israel may not be wise. On one hand, the United States has consistently supported Israel, so Turkey's open challenge to Israel is tantamount to offending the United States. On the other hand, Israel relies on the support of Western countries and possesses formidable military strength, making it uncertain whether Turkey can gain the upper hand. However, at present, Turkey must stand behind the Syrian transitional government to stabilize the situation. If Israel succeeds in controlling the Syrian situation and supports a pro-Western proxy, it will undoubtedly use this as leverage against Turkey, destabilizing the border situation. It is not an exaggeration to say that Israel's actions are seen by Turkey as a serious threat to its national security and future development. Therefore, Turkey is determined to maintain Syria's territorial integrity, appeasing domestic conservative groups and taking a tough stance against Israel and Western countries. It is foreseeable that Syria's security situation will face significant challenges ahead, with external powers engaging in a high-stakes game that could plunge Syria into deeper chaos.
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